AGP Executive Report

Iran–Israel Ceasefire Frays: Iran and Israel traded strikes again after a fragile pause, with Tehran saying it halted operations but warned it would resume if attacks on Lebanon continue, while Israel said the “fire on this front” is contained “for now” and vowed force if Iran strikes again. US Mediation Under Strain: Trump told Netanyahu to avoid escalation into a wider war, saying he warned Israel it could be left without a “green light,” as Washington pushes for talks. Gaza Humanitarian Hit: Israel suspended Gaza aid deliveries and closed crossings after Iran’s missile attack, deepening shortages amid competing claims about aid volumes. Lebanon Front Intensifies: Netanyahu said the war against Hezbollah is “not over,” as Israeli strikes reportedly hit areas including Tyre and Nabatieh, while Lebanese officials condemned damage to heritage sites. Regional Fallout on Trade and Energy: Oil prices gave back gains after Iran announced an end to its first wave, but markets stayed jittery; the EU also moved to sanction Iran-linked Hormuz navigation restrictions. Public Opinion and Politics: A Pew poll found Israel’s global image worsening sharply across many countries, while Iran’s hardline rhetoric and domestic political debate in Israel continue to shape the next moves.

Israel-Iran Escalation: Israel and Iran traded strikes again for the first time since an April ceasefire, with Israel hitting Iranian air-defense systems and a Mahshahr petrochemical site after Iran’s IRGC said it launched “Operation Nasr” targeting Nevatim and Tel Nof airbases. Lebanon Front: The flare-up follows Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs tied to Hezbollah, while Iran warns of wider retaliation if attacks on Lebanon continue. Red Sea Pressure: Yemen’s Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli-linked maritime navigation in the Red Sea, treating any Israeli movement as a military target, as Israel said it intercepted missiles launched from Yemen. Travel & Visa Fallout: India issued an urgent advisory telling citizens to avoid Iran and leave immediately; Iran’s World Cup camp in Mexico is hit by a US visa row. Markets & Costs: Fresh Middle East tensions pushed Gulf stocks lower, while oil jumped and airlines warned profits could be halved as fuel and disruption costs rise. US Sanctions: The US Treasury sanctioned Iran’s Nobitex crypto exchange, alleging it supports IRGC-linked military transactions.

Iran-Gulf Escalation: Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones toward Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain saying intercepts happened early Saturday after US strikes on Iranian surveillance sites; Tehran called it a ceasefire violation. Beirut Ceasefire Break: Israel struck Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) for the first time since a US-brokered truce, killing and wounding residents, while Iran warned of “decisive and painful” retaliation and threatened US-Israeli bases as “legitimate targets.” Missiles Hit Israel: Israel said missiles launched from Iran triggered sirens across parts of the country; it claimed interceptions but warned defenses aren’t “hermetic,” as schools were closed. US-Iran Deadlock: Trump reiterated he won’t unfreeze Iranian assets or lift sanctions before a deal, while Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi pushed mediation in Tehran. US Security Tensions: The Pentagon reportedly raised its counterintelligence threat level for Israel to “critical,” citing concerns about spying on US decision-making. Gaza Violence: An Israeli strike on a Gaza police station killed at least five, as fighting continued amid ceasefire accusations.

Strait of Hormuz Escalation: US CENTCOM says it shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones threatening international maritime traffic, then struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island—while Iran retaliated with missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait, with Bahrain calling it “blatant aggression” and Kuwait warning of “dangerous escalation.” US-Iran Deal Pressure: As the US-Iran war hits its 100th day, Washington is weighing redirecting frozen Iranian assets to help Gulf reconstruction and repair damage, a move that could further strain a fragile ceasefire. Israel-Lebanon Front: Israeli strikes continued in Gaza and south Lebanon, including a reported strike on a Lebanese army vehicle that killed officers and a soldier; Hezbollah rejects ceasefire terms that would require disarmament first. Pentagon Spying Alarm: The Pentagon raised Israel’s counterintelligence threat level to “critical,” with US media reporting concerns about Israeli human espionage and technical collection aimed at US decision-making. World Cup Visa Row: Iran says some World Cup staff still lack US visas even as players receive entry clearance, while Iran’s federation and journalists’ groups warn the dispute is politicizing sport. France Sanctions Push: France is coordinating national sanctions on individuals linked to West Bank violence as EU-level action stalls. Gaza Civilian Toll: Gaza civil defence reports multiple deaths in strikes on displaced people’s areas amid ongoing ceasefire strain.

Gulf Missile Crisis: Bahrain and Kuwait condemned fresh Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, saying interceptors stopped the strikes and caused material damage but no casualties, while Iran accused the US of breaking the ceasefire after coastal radar strikes. US-Iran Ceasefire Tensions: Washington said it shot down drones and hit surveillance radar sites, as both sides trade claims of “violations” and warn escalation could derail talks. Lebanon Under Strain: Israel’s strike on a Lebanese Army vehicle killed two officers and a soldier, with Hezbollah blaming Beirut’s “concessions” and Lebanon’s president calling it a sovereignty violation, as ceasefire efforts remain fragile. Palestinian Fatalities: In the West Bank, a seven-month-old Palestinian baby was killed and parents wounded after troops fired at a vehicle near Hebron; Israel said it was investigating. Diplomacy Watch: Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian officials in Tehran amid renewed Iran-US talks and discussion of frozen assets. Europe Pressure on Israel: Ireland banned Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir and signaled settlement-linked trade restrictions. Regional Fallout: The UN warned the Hormuz closure is worsening food insecurity, with tens of millions at risk if the crisis drags on.

Gulf Escalation: The US says it shot down four Iranian drones toward the Strait of Hormuz and then struck Iranian coastal radar sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island, as tensions keep testing a fragile ceasefire. Missile Alerts in Kuwait & Bahrain: CENTCOM also reported Iran fired seven ballistic missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain; six were intercepted and one failed to reach its target, with Bahrain condemning the “blatant aggression.” Ceasefire Deadlock & Lebanon Link: Iran’s foreign minister rejected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s claim Tehran uses Lebanon as a bargaining chip, while Iran-linked officials say any US deal hinges on a Lebanon ceasefire and release of $24bn in frozen assets. Nuclear Watch: The IAEA raised alarm that it can’t verify Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile location or status. West Bank Violence: Israeli forces killed a seven-month-old Palestinian baby in Tel Rumeida near Hebron, wounding his parents. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Ireland imposed entry bans on Israeli far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Economy & Food Security: The UN’s WFP warned the Iran war is pushing millions toward acute hunger as energy and food prices stay high.

Lebanon-Iran Tensions: Lebanon’s president and prime minister sharply rebuked Iran after Tehran rejected the latest Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, calling the country a “bargaining chip” and warning that Lebanese civilians are paying the price as Israeli strikes hit southern villages. Ceasefire Under Strain: Despite U.S.-brokered talks and troop movements around Dibbine, Israel issued evacuation warnings for multiple areas and fighting continued, while Hezbollah rejected the deal and demanded conditions including Israeli withdrawal. UN Humanitarian Push: The UN more than doubled its Lebanon aid appeal to about $640m for six months, warning of a looming humanitarian catastrophe with a quarter of the population needing help. US-Iran Deadlock: Iran’s senior adviser told CNN negotiations are at a standstill unless the U.S. unfreezes $24bn in frozen assets, while U.S. lawmakers moved to curb Trump’s Iran war powers. War Powers Clash in Washington: The House passed a resolution limiting Trump’s ability to keep forces in an Iran conflict without congressional approval, as Congress also tightened oversight of Pentagon decisions. Markets and Energy: Oil prices eased on hopes for de-escalation, but the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk factor for global shipping and inflation. World Cup Amid Conflict: Iran’s World Cup squad received U.S. visas just days before kickoff, despite ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Israel-Lebanon Escalation: Despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework, Hezbollah rejected the deal and demanded full Israeli withdrawal, while Israel continued strikes including near Tyre and around Jabal Amel Hospital; Israel also warned residents of three villages north of the Litani River to evacuate. Iran Nuclear Oversight: The UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) said it couldn’t inspect key Iranian facilities hit by war and reported little change in its assessment, as enriched uranium stockpile details remain unclear. Gulf Tensions and Oil Routes: Four Iranian-flagged tankers reportedly slipped through the Strait of Hormuz with transponders off amid US blockade claims, while Iran and the US traded blame over attacks near Kuwait. US Politics and War Powers: In Washington, the House advanced steps to end Trump’s Iran war, adding pressure as lawmakers challenge his war powers. Humanitarian Fallout: Palestinian refugees in Lebanon face renewed displacement and hardship as fighting drags on, and Israel’s Supreme Court lifted a ban on Red Cross prison visits. Regional Economy: Turkey’s inflation edged up to 32.6% in May, and the OECD warned prolonged Middle East conflict could push economies toward recession.

Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire Rift: Hezbollah rejected a US-backed truce with Israel, demanding a comprehensive halt to aggression and Israeli withdrawal, as Israel said it would not withdraw and strikes continued across the south. Iran War Powers Fight: In Washington, the US House voted 215-208 to end involvement in the Iran war, with four Republicans crossing party lines; Trump blasted the move as “meaningless.” Kuwait Attack Fallout: Kuwait’s PM visited injured victims after an Iran-linked airport attack, while Iran’s Guards denied responsibility and blamed a Patriot system error. Diplomacy to De-escalate: Qatar’s foreign minister held calls with France and Türkiye on US-Iran mediation and regional hotspots including Gaza and Lebanon, urging dialogue to address root causes. Energy Shock and Daily Life: With Strait of Hormuz disruption driving fuel costs, Alaska fishermen warned diesel prices could nearly double, squeezing already tight fishing seasons. Nuclear Oversight Pressure: The IAEA demanded access to more Iranian nuclear sites, saying it cannot verify enrichment after war-damaged facilities stayed off limits. Markets on Edge: Wall Street rallied on hopes of an Iran deal, but oil and regional tensions kept volatility high.

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire: Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a conditional ceasefire after US-mediated talks, demanding a complete halt of Hezbollah fire and the withdrawal of Hezbollah operatives from south of the Litani, with “pilot zones” giving the Lebanese army exclusive control; talks are set to resume June 22. US-Iran War Powers: In a rare bipartisan rebuke, the US House passed a resolution to end the war with Iran and require congressional approval for further military action, 215-208, with four Republicans joining Democrats. Gaza Strikes: Despite a truce framework, Israeli attacks in Gaza City killed at least eight people, with medics reporting multiple apartment and camp strikes. Gulf Escalation: Iran and the US traded strikes again, with Iran firing missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain and the US conducting self-defence strikes near Qeshm Island; the US also disabled an oil tanker heading for an Iranian port. Kuwait Airport Attack: Kuwait said an Iranian drone hit its main airport, killing one and injuring dozens, while Iran’s IRGC blamed a malfunctioning US Patriot interceptor. Markets & Energy Shock: Oil and gold moved on the shifting ceasefire hopes and renewed fighting, while airline bosses warned the Iran war is driving higher jet fuel costs and route disruptions. Iran Economy Pressure: In Iran, prices are rising “by the hour” amid blockade-linked shortages and inflation fears. Türkiye Economy: Türkiye’s fishery production rose 11.1% in 2025, and coastal property prices in summer destinations climbed sharply, reflecting continued demand.

US-Iran Escalation: Fresh missile and drone exchanges hit the Gulf as Kuwait’s main airport was struck again, killing at least one and injuring dozens, while the US said it intercepted incoming projectiles and struck Iranian military sites near Qeshm Island—raising fears the fragile ceasefire is slipping. Ceasefire Talks Under Strain: Iran says it has frozen back-channel communication with Washington over Israel’s Lebanon campaign, while US officials insist negotiations are still moving, with monetary compensation and nuclear concessions emerging as key sticking points. Lebanon Front Intensifies: Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned any attack on Beirut would trigger a “full-scale resumption” of war, as Israel presses its Lebanon offensive and rejects linking a Lebanon ceasefire to wider talks. Gulf Security Fallout: Kuwait expelled Iranian diplomats after attacks on civilian facilities, and regional states condemned the strikes as oil and markets react to renewed risk. Domestic Politics in Israel: Bennett attacked the comptroller election process, alleging the government is being run “like a mafia,” as opposition challenges the vote’s legality. Economy Watch: The Fed’s Beige Book points to a widening “K-shaped” divide, with energy-linked inflation hitting middle- and low-income households harder. Defense Industry: Reports highlight surging demand for weapons tied to the Iran war, while US-Iran tensions also drive fresh sanctions and enforcement against technology smuggling to Iran.

Kuwait Escalation: Iran launched drones at Kuwait International Airport, hitting the passenger terminal, injuring people, and forcing flights to be suspended/diverted as Kuwait vowed to respond and keep critical infrastructure on alert. US-Iran Standoff: The US said it intercepted Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Gulf locations and carried out self-defence strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, while Iran’s IRGC framed the Kuwait attack as retaliation for the Qeshm strike. Talks in Limbo: Iran is reviewing a proposed US deal to halt the conflict, but Rubio said Washington wants nuclear concessions in writing and warned sanctions relief would come only with nuclear limits; markets reacted to the lack of progress. Oil and Markets: Oil prices pushed higher toward the $97 area as hostilities flared and Hormuz reopening hopes dimmed; gold slipped as investors weighed renewed risk. Economic Fallout: The OECD warned the Middle East war could drag on growth and raise inflation, cutting global forecasts and flagging recession risk if disruption persists into 2027. Sanctions and Finance: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian crypto exchanges and individuals, while Oman Arab Bank marked a successful $400m AT1 bond listing in London. Regional Power Moves: Iraq added new electricity supplies via Türkiye and the Kurdistan Region to boost summer grid stability.

Israel-Hezbollah Front: Trump said a cessation of hostilities is in place, but Lebanon reported fresh strikes and Hezbollah projectiles soon after, while Israel continued air attacks in southern Lebanon and Gaza. Lebanon-Israel Talks: A new two-day round began in Washington as Lebanon pushed for a full ceasefire, withdrawal, and reconstruction, with Israel seeking Hezbollah disarmament assurances. Iran-US Negotiations: Iran reportedly paused contact with mediators over Lebanon, while Trump insisted talks are “continuous” and Rubio told lawmakers Hormuz reopening is a key step for nuclear talks. Sanctions & Finance: The US sanctioned Iran’s biggest crypto exchange, alleging it helps the regime and IRGC dodge sanctions. Markets & Energy: Oil prices swung on ceasefire and Iran-talk headlines; Türkiye cut fuel prices as global oil eased. Humanitarian Strain: UNICEF warned Middle East conflict is disrupting shipping and forcing more costly airlifts, delaying aid to Gaza and Lebanon. Domestic Politics: Israel advanced a bill to dissolve the Knesset ahead of early elections. Palestinian Lives: Eid al-Adha brought no respite in Gaza, with dozens killed and hundreds wounded.

Lebanon-Israel Escalation: France’s foreign minister said “nothing can justify” Israel’s deep occupation in Lebanon after troops seized Beaufort and clashes continued despite a Trump-brokered partial halt. UN Diplomacy: UN Security Council members criticized Israeli strikes on Lebanon, with China and Russia pressing for cease-fire and troop withdrawal while the US focused blame on Hezbollah. US-Iran Talks Under Strain: Iran suspended US negotiations over Beirut bombings, warning any deal must include a Lebanon ceasefire; Trump meanwhile claimed talks are moving “at rapid pace” and a Hormuz reopening could come “over the next week.” Beirut Suburbs: Israel ordered strikes on Dahiyeh, citing Hezbollah ceasefire violations, as civilians fled and Hezbollah reported continued rocket and drone attacks. Gaza Pressure: UN rights officials warned Gaza’s humanitarian collapse and displacement as Israel expands control, while Netanyahu ordered moving toward 70% control. Energy and Markets: Strait of Hormuz risks kept oil and gold volatile, with gold edging up amid conflicting signals on diplomacy.

Lebanon Ceasefire Talks: Trump says Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt attacks and that no troops will go to Beirut, after Iran warned it would not tolerate renewed aggression; Lebanon’s US embassy says Hezbollah accepted a US proposal for “mutual cessation of attacks.” Iran–US Negotiations: Iran’s state-linked media says Tehran suspended indirect talks with Washington over Israel’s Lebanon campaign, while Trump insists talks are still moving “at a rapid pace.” Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Iran warns it may fully seal Hormuz and other routes as US strikes hit Iranian radar/drone sites and Iran retaliates, sending oil sharply higher. Israel–Hezbollah Escalation on the Ground: Israel reports seizing operational control of Beaufort Ridge and the Beaufort Castle area, while strikes across southern Lebanon kill civilians and soldiers. Diplomatic and Legal Ripples: UN chief Guterres warns of rising Israeli attacks on Lebanon; Israel’s High Court clears Mossad chief appointment for Roman Gofman. Energy Shock to Markets: Reports say the Iran war is squeezing European factories and lifting raw-material costs, while oil volatility keeps markets jittery.

US-Iran Strikes: The US said it carried out “self-defence” strikes on Iranian radar and drone-control sites after Iran shot down a US MQ-1 drone; Iran’s IRGC retaliated by targeting a US-linked air base, while Kuwait reported intercepting missiles and drones. Ceasefire Talks Under Strain: Washington and Tehran keep trading revised MoU drafts, with Iran saying nothing is final and that it won’t accept terms without securing its rights; Trump is also pushing tougher conditions tied to Strait of Hormuz access and uranium issues. Lebanon Escalation: Israel seized the medieval Beaufort Castle and vowed to push deeper into Lebanon as Hezbollah kept firing; France urged an end to the escalation and called for UN Security Council action. Regional Diplomacy: Qatar condemned Israel’s widening ground incursion; Saudi Arabia reiterated “No Palestinian State, No Normalization.” Markets & Energy: Oil jumped as Strait of Hormuz fears returned, with Singapore warning of supply-chain strain. Domestic Fallout in Iran: Iran executed two men over alleged December 2025 protests, while reports swirl about President Pezeshkian’s authority amid internal power struggles. Human Impact: Gaza’s medical collapse is driving new disabilities, including severe hearing loss among survivors. UK Entry Bans: UK barred US commentators Hasan Piker and Cenk Uygur over criticism of Israel.