AGP Executive Report

Middle East Security: Bahrain told the UN Security Council it recorded 808 attacks since Feb. 28, accusing Iran of targeting civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, including a desalination plant and strikes near the UAE’s Barakah nuclear site. Iran-US Diplomacy: US officials worried Israel could target top Iranian negotiators during ceasefire talks, prompting warnings to Tehran about possible harm to figures including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Gaza Postwar Planning: A “Hamas-free” camp concept inside Gaza’s Green Zone is being discussed, but implementation hinges on mechanisms that remain blocked or politically contested. Religious Freedom in Iran: Iran and the IRGC are moving to seize Tehran’s historic St. Peter Evangelical Church, threatening families on the compound and seeking to strip the church’s legal status. Defense Tech: A drone arms race keeps accelerating, with militaries adapting to swarms that can overwhelm defenses. Regional Diplomacy: UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed met Libya’s PM Dbeibah to review bilateral ties and regional stability efforts. Economy & Trade: Zambia’s investor interest is returning after default, with Citi pointing to momentum in mining, energy and agriculture. Business & Industry: Stellantis’ South Africa plant in the Eastern Cape is on hold as plans are reworked; AirTrunk’s Malaysia JHB3/JHB4 data centers target 280MW IT load with recycled-water cooling.

Strait of Hormuz Tensions: Iran warned oil tankers to use approved Hormuz routes or face “forceful response,” as US-Iran indirect talks in Doha focused on a communication channel and release of frozen funds, keeping a permanent peace uncertain. US Regional Posture: A Wall Street Journal report says CENTCOM is considering moving operational systems in Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to Israel to reduce vulnerability to Iranian missiles and drones. Energy Markets: Brent slipped toward $70 as easing geopolitical signals met ongoing supply worries, while Shell said LNG demand could rise 65% by 2050 and Hormuz disruption has already shut about a fifth of monthly LNG supply. Gulf Economy & Finance: Qatar’s Dukhan Bank won a MENA banking award; Franklin Templeton is expanding in Qatar via the QFC; Standard Chartered and Circle launched bank-led USDC minting/redemption access from DIFC. UAE & Oman Development: Covestro plans a new MDI train in China and a UAE feasibility study; UAE tech firm Presight AI signed a smart-road deal in Kazakhstan; Oman’s Tanmia and FIM Partners will launch a $250m real estate fund, while Asyad Shipping gets support for food cargoes on the India-Oman route. Healthcare: Abu Dhabi Biobank and Bascom Palmer Eye Institute will establish the Middle East’s first eye bank in Abu Dhabi.

US-Iran Diplomacy: Technical talks in Doha continue after a planned senior meeting was ruled out, with Iran reporting progress on partially releasing frozen funds and setting up a communication channel to manage disputes under a fragile ceasefire framework. Gaza Governance: A post-war Gaza technocratic committee wrapped “highly productive” Cyprus talks on easing humanitarian suffering and laying groundwork for reconstruction, security and donor transparency. Iraq Anti-Corruption: Iraq’s new government faces an early test as raids in Baghdad’s Green Zone detain lawmakers and officials tied to alleged corruption networks. Energy & Shipping: Strait of Hormuz dynamics remain central to negotiations and costs, while easing Middle East volatility has helped push some fuel prices down in the region. Gulf Finance: Gulf sovereign wealth funds logged a record first-half investment pace despite Iran-war uncertainty, with deals concentrated in the US and China. Markets: Wall Street stayed choppy as traders weighed Fed signals and Middle East-driven oil swings, with investors watching whether lower crude feeds through to consumers. Israel-Lebanon Diplomacy: A US-led approach with Lebanon and Israel signals a more detailed diplomatic track, even as obstacles remain.

Iraq’s Investment Push: Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al-Zaidi says Iraq will set up an Energy and Development Fund backed by the Central Bank of Iraq, inviting Gulf states and Western investors to help finance reconstruction and strategic projects. Gulf Energy Build-Out: Saudi Arabia prequalified 27 firms for the second round of 12GWh battery storage projects, lining up six utility-scale BESS sites. Jordan Jobs Plan: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan’s Growth and Competitiveness programme, aiming to turn macro stability into private investment, finance access, jobs, and a green-digital transition. Banking Integrity Upgrade: Region Trade Bank in Doha named a new board of international experts on financial integrity, sanctions policy, and payment systems as Iraq’s financial sector links deepen. MENA Media Growth: Media City Qatar launched insight papers on GCC and MENA media trends, including the creator economy and micro-drama formats. Oil Market Watch: Shell warned global LNG trade in 2026 could track 422m tonnes if Hormuz shipping normalizes, while disruption has already shut in about a fifth of monthly supply. Business & Daily Life: Kuwait’s cabinet condemned renewed Iranian aggressions and put forces on peak readiness, while Malta’s fiscal council flagged Middle East conflict risks for energy and food prices.

US-Iran Talks in Doha: Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are in Qatar for mediator-led discussions, but officials say there’s no scheduled high-level US-Iran meeting—only ongoing technical talks, with the Strait of Hormuz still central to the agenda. Hormuz Aftershock: The Strait’s reopening eases immediate shipping disruption, yet UNCTAD warns the damage to prices and supply chains will linger, hitting oil, fertilizer and transport costs in vulnerable economies. Israel-Lebanon Security Review: Israel is expanding its internal review beyond Hezbollah drones to a suspected intelligence failure over Hezbollah’s cross-border tunnel network, now described as containing command centers, weapons depots and drones. Iran’s Kurdish-West Violence: Reports of renewed clashes in Iran’s Kurdish-majority west raise fears that a long-simmering insurgency could be intensifying as US-Iran diplomacy remains fragile. Regional Telecom Growth: Zain wins a 25-year Syria mobile license in a $747m deal, aiming for a Q1 2027 commercial launch after a transition period. Energy Costs and Local Relief: Malaysia’s tourism ministry urges tour operators to submit diesel-use data to unlock possible tax incentives after Middle East-linked fuel price pressure. Markets Watch: Gold remains a central-bank favorite despite volatility, with OMFIF reporting continued official buying plans amid geopolitical uncertainty.

US–Iran Strait of Hormuz Tensions: The US and Iran have agreed to halt recent strikes and return to talks, with follow-up discussions set for Doha, but analysts warn the core fight over Strait of Hormuz control is still unresolved—keeping shipping and regional risk in focus. Aviation & Trade Pressure: IATA says global air cargo demand rose 6% in May, yet Middle East carriers saw a combined 8.9% contraction as conflict disruptions persist; Asia-Pacific passenger traffic also held up, though routes to the Middle East were cut. UAE–Ukraine Commerce: A UAE-Ukraine CEPA takes effect, exempting most goods from customs duties and aiming to restart non-oil trade flows. Qatar–Türkiye Satellite Push: Es’hailSat signed with Türksat and Thales Alenia Space for the Es’hail-3/Türksat-Biruni high-throughput satellite, expanding secure connectivity across MENA and beyond. Gulf Wealth Snapshot: UBS reports the UAE added millionaires, reaching 183,000 dollar millionaires, with low household debt supporting resilience. Energy Costs Spillover: In the Philippines, labor groups criticized a staggered NCR minimum-wage hike, arguing inflation tied to Middle East oil shocks is eroding purchasing power. Turkish Comedy Probe: Türkiye opened an investigation into comedian Deniz Göktaş over alleged “insulting religious values” in his stand-up special.

US–Iran Strait of Hormuz: The US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, but both sides now say they will halt hostilities and renew talks in Doha, even as Tehran insists no US-led technical meetings are scheduled—leaving the interim MoU’s 60-day de-escalation plan shaky. Energy & shipping: Despite renewed tensions, Middle East producers kept oil and LNG loadings moving, with VLCCs seen loading in Saudi and UAE as analysts warn transit is still far from fully recovered. Diplomacy under pressure: Iran says it prioritizes implementing the MoU before any final deal, while US envoys are set to meet in Qatar—highlighting how quickly the “peace” narrative can unravel. Regional spillover: Germany announced €250m to help Africa and Asia cope with Hormuz-linked fuel and commodity shocks, while UN chief Guterres warned terrorism is spreading across the Middle East and Africa amid instability and AI-enabled threats. Iraq–Kurdistan: Iran is reportedly pressuring Baghdad to expel Iranian Kurdish opposition groups from Iraq’s Kurdistan Region after Araghchi’s Baghdad visit. Iraq–Syria ties: Baghdad and Damascus agreed to a joint committee on energy, water, transport and border crossings after the Iraqi FM’s first Syria visit since Assad’s fall. Security in Syria: Tension flared in southern Syria after Israel killed two men near the Quneitra security zone.

Iraq Power Build-Out: Iraq is moving ahead with plans to sign contracts for 25GW of new electricity generation capacity this year, boosting grid strength as it prepares its 2027 budget. Kuwait Industry Push: Kuwait’s Al-Na’ayem Industrial City hit 15% completion and is slated for handover in 2032 under a BOT model, with clean-energy and smart-manufacturing aims. Lebanon-Israel Framework: Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework in Washington, starting “pilot zones” for Lebanese Armed Forces security while setting verification steps for disarmament of nonstate armed groups. Middle East Energy Shock Watch: Oil prices rose after renewed US-Iran strikes, with markets again focused on Strait of Hormuz disruption risk. Sovereign Wealth Focus: A new study says Middle East sovereign investors are prioritizing energy security and critical infrastructure as global uncertainty grows. UAE Aviation & Finance: Etihad Cargo launched an airline-led training hub, while Expo City Dubai partnered with Emirates NBD to offer tailored mortgage and home financing for buyers. Regional Mobility: Philippine Airlines will restart Manila-Dubai nonstop service from Oct 2, 2026 with four weekly flights. Media & Regulation: Pakistan’s regulator suspended Geo News’s licence for 15 days over Muharram-related content deemed offensive. Sports Business: A report says Middle East football clubs are accelerating revenue diversification beyond broadcast rights, helped by major tournament-linked investment.

US-Iran Tensions: Iran and the US agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks over the Strait of Hormuz, with a planned meeting in Qatar, but tit-for-tat strikes have already raised fears of renewed disruption to one of the world’s key shipping lanes. Gulf Shipping Disruption: Hapag-Lloyd warned the Strait is entering a “new normal” of chaos as routing directives conflict; meanwhile, Iranian crude loading activity reportedly restarted and only a handful of South Korea-linked vessels remain inside the Gulf after evacuations. Saudi Safety Shock: A Saudi Aramco helicopter crash near Ras Tanura killed 14 people; authorities launched an investigation and the cause remains unknown. Fuel Price Politics in Nepal: Nepal’s government is delaying domestic petrol and diesel cuts even as global prices fall after Hormuz reopening, citing procedural delays in purchases from India’s Oil Corporation. Regional Economy Watch: The BIS warned that debt, supply shocks, and AI-related financing risks could amplify global instability, even as the Hormuz ceasefire reduces extreme scenarios. Consumer Protection: Nigeria’s FCCPC says fuel price cuts are too slow despite crude declines, warning of potential consumer exploitation in the downstream market.

Gulf Security: Kuwait and Bahrain condemned renewed Iranian missile and drone attacks, calling them violations of sovereignty and warning the strikes breach the US-Iran “Islamabad Memorandum” meant to halt military operations. US-Iran Escalation: Washington said it hit Iranian missile/drone and radar sites after an attack on a cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran vowed forceful retaliation and accused the US of breaking the ceasefire. Lebanon Flashpoint: Israel carried out fresh strikes in southern Lebanon days after a US-backed interim framework, as Hezbollah rejected the deal and warned of “internal conflict” over implementation. Energy & Economy: Iraq is discussing a proposed $400bn US-linked Energy and Development Fund to finance infrastructure and power projects, while Iran’s June inflation surged to 88.6% year-on-year amid war-driven price spikes. Regional Business: The UAE pushed secure AI supply-chain cooperation in Washington, and Kuwait’s Boursa Kuwait moved ahead with launching an Emerging Companies Market for smaller firms. Culture & Media: Doha Film Institute opened applications for its Filmmaking Lab led by Oscar nominee Rithy Panh, and Oman’s Al Mouj Muscat marked 20 years with an OMR 878m GDP contribution.

Israel-Lebanon diplomacy: Netanyahu says Israel will send a delegation to Washington to raise security concerns over any long-term U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, while the Lebanon framework signed in Washington is framed by Israel as a “blow” to Iran and Hezbollah—yet Hezbollah leaders reject it and warn of an extended stay and continued armed posture. Iran-US tensions: Iran reports retaliatory strikes after U.S. attacks on coastal surveillance and missile/drone-linked sites, condemning breaches of a ceasefire and urging UN action as the truce looks fragile. Regional security: Turkey arrests hundreds ahead of the NATO summit, with Erdogan pushing a Kurdish peace process and a legal framework expected mid-July. World Cup amid conflict: Iran’s coach and players complain of “unfair” FIFA treatment and logistics problems tied to the Middle East war backdrop, while Iranian fans react emotionally to a tense draw with Egypt. EU rights pressure: The EU condemns Tunisia’s 25-year sentence of opposition rights figure Sihem Bensedrine, calling for restored pluralism. Food security support: The World Bank approves $1.1bn emergency financing for Bangladesh to cushion fertiliser, fuel, and food shocks linked to the Middle East crisis.

Middle East Ceasefire Under Strain: Iran’s foreign ministry condemned fresh US airstrikes on targets along Iran’s southern coast, calling them a “blatant violation” of a June 17 framework meant to end the war, as Washington said the strikes followed an attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC Retaliation Warnings: Iran’s IRGC also confirmed cross-border kinetic actions after the strikes, warning of “decisive” asymmetrical response if provocations continue, while lawmakers accused the US of attacking during active diplomacy. Gaza Diplomacy Fallout (India): Sonia Gandhi renewed pressure on India’s Modi government over “stony silence” on Gaza, with Rahul Gandhi backing the call for an independent foreign policy; the BJP hit back saying India has supported humanitarian aid and UN ceasefire votes. Food Security Shock (Bangladesh): The World Bank approved $1.1 billion for Bangladesh to stabilize fertilizer and fuel supplies tied to Middle East conflict-driven price volatility, targeting rice seasons Aman and Boro and vulnerable households. UAE False Missile Alert: Abu Dhabi apologized after an incorrect early-warning message triggered panic, then was quickly reversed—an incident that highlights Gulf vulnerability during the wider Iran-related conflict.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: The Pentagon says the US carried out strikes against Iran after a drone attack on a Singapore-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating a fragile de-escalation effort. Diplomacy & Shipping: Japan cut travel advisories for seven Middle Eastern nations after a US-Iran memorandum, while South Korea reported eight more of its commercial vessels safely transiting the strait as shipping lanes stabilize. Gulf Security Reassurance: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio toured UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain to reassure Gulf allies that the Iran deal won’t undermine their security or prosperity. Energy Shock Fallout: Germany warned EU methane rules could disrupt jet fuel and imported fuel supplies amid the wider Middle East energy shock. Markets & Inflation: Global stocks slipped as oil eased and investors digested the latest Middle East-driven trade and inflation risks, with the IMF chief economist warning reserves are depleted and downside risks remain if the ceasefire fails.

Strait of Hormuz Diplomacy Under Strain: Iran struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile shipping recovery after a US-Iran framework aimed at de-escalation; UN efforts to evacuate trapped sailors were also disrupted, while Iran’s nuclear pledge faces “very strong” verification demands from the IAEA. Gulf Security Demands: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told GCC allies any Iran deal must protect regional security, keep waterways open, and avoid “fees” that could trigger “total chaos,” as Gulf ministers pressed for action on missiles, drones, and proxy support. Oil Market Mood Turns Softer: Oil prices fell more than 2% as supply outlooks outweighed renewed Middle East tensions, even as analysts warned fuel shocks can still feed inflation. Energy Transition in Egypt: Egypt signed an MoU for its first wind turbine manufacturing plant and a 2GW Gulf of Suez wind project, aiming to localize components and boost renewables to 45% of the energy mix. Regional Economic Signals: Goldman Sachs lifted India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal eased oil risks, while South Korea unveiled a major plan to buy 20,000 drones and train “drone warriors,” citing lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East. Crypto Payments Expand in Africa: Coinbase’s Base network now hosts 25+ local-currency stablecoins, including naira and rand, as issuers push beyond dollar-only settlement.

US-Iran Ceasefire & Hormuz: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrapped up a Gulf tour telling allies any Iran deal must protect GCC security, with the US-GCC backing “free, unconditional” navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and rejecting tolls or fees. Maritime Security: CENTCOM released F-16 patrol photos after an IRGC drone hit a Singapore-flagged cargo ship near Hormuz, while the UN’s shipping safety body paused an evacuation initiative. Gulf Diplomacy: Saudi FM Prince Faisal attended a GCC-US ministerial in Bahrain focused on regional stability and maritime trade security. Middle East Politics: Archbishops warned of an “existential” challenge for Christians in the Holy Land, citing settler violence, displacement and discrimination in the West Bank. Energy & Economy: Oil prices slid toward pre-war levels as negotiations eased tensions, but inflation pressure remains a concern. AI & Investment: A Dubai VC firm is linking GCC investors to China’s AI and deep-tech boom, while Saudi messaging apps are set to expand into full-service digital channels. Local Governance/Infrastructure: Philippines plans to speed up infrastructure spending after flood-control scandal-linked caution, and a Baguio-area PPP proposal would modernize century-old hydro plants.

Iran Deal Fallout & Gulf Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrapped up a Gulf tour in Bahrain, telling allies any Iran agreement must protect their security and prosperity, as Iran-linked fears and Hormuz concerns remain front and center. Ceasefire Friction in Lebanon: An Israeli drone strike near Kfar Rumman killed civilians, with Hezbollah calling it a truce violation, underscoring how fragile de-escalation still is. Oil, Markets & Cost Pressure: Brent slid below $72 as Hormuz traffic improved, easing pressure on Gulf stocks while raising fresh debate over how long the relief lasts. Infrastructure Shift: Siemens says the Middle East is accelerating infrastructure transition toward autonomous, resilient and sustainable grids, with executives pushing faster clean-energy change. UAE Cyber Push: The UAE Cybersecurity Council, with AWS and CrowdStrike, completed a government-backed accelerator that selected 23 startups to help build a pipeline of 500+ cybersecurity firms. Regional Governance & Security Cooperation: The League of Arab States and UNODC met in Cairo to coordinate responses to drugs, organized crime and financial crimes across Arab states. Local Economy Watch: S&P cut the Philippines’ 2026 growth forecast sharply, citing Middle East-driven energy shocks and stalled infrastructure spending. Business & Mobility: Jetstar axed two Australia–New Zealand routes over weak demand and rising costs, while Dubai’s DFSA reported 16% growth in regulated entities in 2025.