Gulf Capital Key to USD75B Gaza Rebuild, Ex-OECD Chief Warns
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MENAFNThe warning came at the 10th edition of a state broadcaster’s annual global forum, held at the Istanbul Congress Center under the theme A World Without a Center: Who Leads When The Rules Run Out? A panel titled Towards a Rocky Recovery: National Economies After the Wars in the Middle East examined the economic fallout of the region’s conflicts. Auskar Surbakti moderated.
Speakers included Gurria, a former Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) secretary-general, Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive and chief economist of the European Policy Centre, Steve Keen, an honorary professor at University College London, and Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri.
Lebanon: Occupation continues, displaced await return
Mitri said Israel’s occupation of Lebanese territory is ongoing and that attacks have left numerous villages uninhabitable. He named the plight of displaced people among Lebanon’s most urgent challenges, stressing that infrastructure must be repaired so they can go home and rebuild their lives. However devastating the conflicts have been, and however deeply they have divided Lebanese society, he said, recovery and rebuilding remain possible.
Reconstruction bill runs into the tens of billions
Gurria laid out the scale of the costs. He estimated that Lebanon will need about $20 billion, Gaza at least $75 billion and Syria roughly three times that amount. No single country or institution can carry that burden, he stressed.
The effort, he said, will require contributions from multilateral and regional development banks, the US, the EU, Gulf countries and national governments. He called for financial risks to be shared and said Gulf capital could play an especially significant role in funding the region’s recovery.
Europe braces for energy shock
Zuleeg said the effect of Middle East instability on global markets and trade will depend largely on how long the conflicts last. Energy prices are already straining European economies, he noted. No supply restrictions have emerged yet, but prolonged instability could eventually trigger shortages.
He also cited sluggish growth, high inflation and disrupted trade routes as risks. Developments in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, he said, are reshaping Europe’s economic and security policies.
Private debt: the overlooked threat
Keen argued that the global economy fixates on public debt while private-sector borrowing remains one of the main underlying drivers of financial instability. Over the past 70 years, he said, the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product (GDP) rose from 63% to 75%, while private-sector debt-to-GDP surged from 55% to 155%.
Conventional economic policies, he argued, have largely overlooked those growing risks. He added that speculation in the private financial sector, and its financing of the military-industrial sector, also poses significant dangers to the global economy.
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